I had a ton of messages from folks straight after the live saying it was the best one they’d heard, so hopefully you enjoy it too.

Burge was on fire as per usual. And Simon got the hump when we went deep on VeeFriends... again haha.

If you want to get closer to what we’re building, come and join us in the community.

We share trade ideas in the chat, catch up on monthly group calls, and more than anything, it feels like family.

We’d love to have you in the mix.

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Burge joined us all the way from Russia. Simon showed up, shiny bald head and all. And vibes were high.

Spirits are buzzing in crypto right now.

Bitcoin’s pumping. Michael Saylor’s sharing memes. Altcoins are moving.

And even Punkster, yeah, PNKSTR, the Buster Douglas of tokens, is up and swinging.

We get into all of that in the new ep.

If you want a closer look at what we’re building, hit the link below and come check out the community.

We share trade ideas in the chat, do monthly group calls, and more than anything, it feels like family.

We’d love to have you in the mix.

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I’ve made some catastrophic errors with my own crypto strategy over the years.

I’ve top blasted micro caps. Panic sold the lows. Used leverage. And round tripped over a million dollars of assets that, in hindsight, just weren’t very good investments.

But I’ve done some amazing things too.

I got into NFTs almost at inception.

ETH at $50.

Solana at $8.

And now SUI.

The thing I’ve always been very good at is picking assets.

Because you don’t need to guess when there’s something observable in front of you.

With Layer 1s, you can see the users coming. You can see the applications being built. You can see developer activity going bananas.

That’s why I’ve stuck with SUI through what has been an incredibly difficult period. When most would have sold. In fact my fomer self would have panicked.

To the paying subscribers who stuck with me through it, I’ll never forget your support. You allowed this golden goose to keep growing when crypto was getting absolutely battered.

I also had plenty of messages from people disappointed with the price action.

And I get it.

I should have done better on the timing.

My blind spot was not anticipating how aggressively Trump would implement tariffs and how markets would react to that uncertainty.

When financial conditions tighten and money moves out of risk, crypto gets hit hard.

Bitcoin falls. Altcoins generally fall harder.

SUI has been highly correlated with Bitcoin, so when BTC bleeds, SUI tends to bleed more. But the opposite can happen on the way up too.

Which is what we’re seeing now.

But picking the asset is only half the job.

The real skill from here will be knowing when to sell.

Not trying to nail the exact top. That’s fantasy.

But having a robust framework for scaling out using signals that aren’t laser sharp, but can get you somewhere close to the sweet spot.

I think having strong positions in the best assets, while staying open to new trade ideas as a bull market develops, is the way to play this cycle.

Doing that by yourself is incredibly difficult.

It’s why I created my Founders Group.

People share trade ideas every day. We catch up for monthly market calls. You can get immediate answers when something changes.

But most importantly, it’s become a bit of a family in there. Come in and join us!

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We’ve painstakingly hung our hats on the CLARITY Act bringing clearer rules to crypto in the US. This week, it failed to advance in the Senate. Then, almost immediately, the SEC stepped in with its own Innovation Exemption, providing up to five years of conditional regulatory relief for certain venues and liquidity providers involved in trading tokenised US stocks onchain.

It’s not the CLARITY Act, and it doesn’t provide the same permanence as legislation, but it is another significant step towards clearer rules and bringing more traditional financial assets onchain.

These lives continue to grow, which tells me there’s still a huge appetite for understanding what’s happening beneath the market’s surface. You joining us each week, or simply sharing this article with a friend or family member, helps us grow.

If you want access to the community, our daily chat and monthly private group calls, consider becoming a Founding Member.

Make this the last cycle you have to guess or go it alone.

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I had a fascinating conversation with a Coinbase exec recently.

It gets to the heart of how people misunderstand crypto value.

As I sat down for a swank lunch, we got into the customary "what assets are you into" chat. I always feel like you can tell a lot about someone by what they buy.

I was pretty honest. I said I was bullish on SUI, and he replied with, “I’m into Solana but not really looking to get into another L1, to be honest. That, and Raoul Pal is heavy into SUI, and it feels like he’s tryna pump his bags”.

I always like it when someone has an informed opposing view, so I asked what he honestly thought about Sui. He replied, “Not really anything happening on the chain yet, so you don’t really know whether it’s going to be a great trade.”

I agree.

The trade has always been to act with incomplete information, using early-mover advantage based on the team's capability, the technology, and price performance against other assets.

More on that in a sec.

Now, I actually think using RP as a safety signal is pretty smart. But it isn’t the crux of my thesis. I invested in ETH in 2017 and then saw a very similar behavioural pattern with Solana in 2021, when I got in relatively early, and again when it got absolutely nuked to $8 from its $250 (ish) high after the FTX debacle.

Price is largely unimportant for now because these assets are so heavily correlated with Bitcoin. So you have to pop the bonnet and see what’s actually going on.

The more interesting question is why you would invest in a Layer 1 versus almost any other token. And the answer is incredibly simple. You’re not trying to pick the individual applications that will win. It’s almost like buying an index fund or a basket of assets instead of trying to pick individual winners.

Competition at the application layer is fierce, and you’re essentially making singular bets on individual companies. Over time, the leading apps will change hands multiple times, but the rails they’re built on don’t necessarily change with them. In fact, if the network keeps attracting developers, applications, users, and capital, the value of those underlying rails can compound as the ecosystem built on top of them grows.

That’s what I saw with Ethereum, coined the open-source app store of the internet, and then Solana, an Apple-like ETH competitor, being the closed-source app store, and it’s why I’m paying such close attention to Sui now.

Cosmo Jiang, general partner at Pantera Capital, who has $3.5 billion in assets under management, explained the Layer One trade in a fiery debate at Solana Breakpoint on layer ones. He nailed it.

“Applications will always create enormous value. Some will be very valuable businesses. But the idea that this happens instead of value accruing to the L1, or that more value accrues to applications than the L1, is false. In every crypto application, applications monetise users, they monetise activity. But Layer 1s monetise all that activity, plus the monetary capture on the base layer. Every application, no matter what it is, has to live on an L1. It has to pay rent to an L1. When you think about what apps are, apps are like stores at a mall. They pay rent and they benefit from the traffic and the users that exist in the mall. Well, the mall owner (L1) is the one that is more permanent and actually captures the value and collects rent from all the application owners and all the stores.”

The signals show up before the price

Tim Draper once said, and I’ll paraphrase here, something like: when price languishes for ages, people attack the technology when it’s not quite consumer-ready, but engineers continue to work their asses off.

He famously called this concept the Draper I S curve.

“Every industry goes through this. There is a little ‘i’….that’s the hype. It comes to a point (the dot on the i), and then it comes down because people are disenchanted. It sits there while engineers are hard at work, and then it grows into a big ‘S’ that goes way bigger than the top of the i.”

Take, for example, the Amazon chart below.

The dot on the “i” was the dot-com bubble bursting, the most significant drawdown or market crash in our history, and you literally can't even see it on a chart. What followed many years later, now that we use Amazon for ordering basically anything online, was the massive S.

It makes you realise this is true of basically every new technology.

It has a false start, and I saw that with ETH in 2018, Solana in 2021, and now SUI in 2026. The price was showing strong potential but needs to find its use case.

Solana and Sui are both high-performance Layer 1s fishing in roughly the same pond, but right now they’re at very different points in the journey. Solana is the battle-tested older brother.

You can see it in the developer activity.

Solana still leads with roughly 2,500 to 3,000 monthly active developers, while Sui sits around 800 to 1500. But that gap is probably more interesting than it looks. Sui is much younger, and its developer base has been growing quickly.

Developers build the shops (apps) that drive foot traffic (users), which increases transactions and helps the shopping mall (layer 1) collect rent.

Sam Blackshear, the creator of the Move language protocol for SUI, shared developer data recently:

“Sui highlights from EC mid-year dev stats refresh:
- Sui is the 2nd fastest growing L1 dev community over the last year at 16.1% -- just a hair behind Solana at 17.7%.
- Sui is the fastest growing L1 dev community over the last two years at 54%
- This goes against broader growth trends--total crypto devs is down ~20% in the last year and all major EVM L1s had negative dev growth in the past year
- Sui remains the largest, fastest-growing, and most vibrant Move developer community”

TVL is where Solana really stretches its legs.

It has around $6 billion locked across the network versus roughly $450 to $500 million on Sui. No prizes for guessing which ecosystem is more mature. Solana has deeper liquidity, more established applications and a much bigger pot of money sloshing around.

Stablecoins tell much the same story.

Solana has roughly $16 billion sitting on the network compared with around $450 to $700 million on Sui. That matters because this is actual capital sitting there ready to be put to work. It’s one thing to have people kicking the tyres. It’s another having billions of dollars parked in the garage.

DEX volume is equally lopsided.

Solana can do anywhere from $1 billion to $5 billion a day, while Sui is currently somewhere around $30 million. Again, Solana wins today because it is much more established, but the rate of change matters.

Daily active addresses start making things a little spicier. Solana regularly sees between one and five million, while Sui has ranged from around 140,000 to 1.6 million and has peaked at 3.5 million. For a network this young, that gets my attention.

Then there are fees. Sui transactions can cost around $0.0001, roughly 30 times cheaper than Solana. I’m not suggesting cheap automatically means better. You can build the world’s cheapest ghost town, and nobody cares. But when cheap transactions sit alongside rising developers, users, and liquidity, you’ve got something worth watching.

That is really the crux of my Sui thesis. I’m not trying to argue that Sui is bigger or better than Solana today. It clearly isn’t. In fact, it's better that it isn’t because it takes less buying pressure to move higher.

It is starting to show some of the same footprints Solana left behind before everyone decided Solana was obvious.

Price tells a story.

The size gap between Solana and Sui is enormous.

Solana is roughly a $60 billion asset, while Sui sits closer to $3 billion. That makes Solana around 20x larger.

When both assets are correlated with Bitcoin, Solana needs 20x the buying pressure to keep pace with SUI. The concept is simple: for you to double your money in SUI, the market cap needs to go from $3 billion to $6 billion. With Solana, it needs to go from $60 billion to $120 billion.

When both are simply correlated with Bitcoin, the smaller, newer, less liquid network is more likely to rise faster. This stuff is simple.

If you have one person in a network and another person joins, that’s a 100% increase. If you have 100 people in a network and one person joins, that’s only a 1% increase. The bigger the network becomes, the more demand required to maintain the same percentage growth.

You can see from the chart below that the three assets are the same bloody chart. They’re a mirror image of each other.

Bitcoin (orange) goes up in price. Solana (blue) and SUI (green) rise optically. The same happens on the downtrend. When Bitcoin bleeds, Solana and SUI get pneumonia. Solana is 83% correlated to Bitcoin in the last 12 months, and Sui is 80% correlated.

That tells me there is enough copycat behaviour around Bitcoin to suggest the real bet is: does Bitcoin go up in price? My answer is an emphatic yes.

The more interesting part is the longer-term chart.

SUI breaks out against other assets over two years, and its correlation is closer to 60% with BTC.

Remember, price is proportional to network growth, like new wallet addresses, developer activity and transactions. So you just use price as your north star.

When you want to whittle things down and find observable value, using this pair method, or a cross method of pairing assets against each other, gives you a much clearer view of how the market is actually pricing them. It allows you to see which asset is genuinely gaining or losing strength relative to the other.

Solana has graduated from being “crypto beta” to a bona fide blue chip. It’s now larger, more liquid, widely listed, and increasingly sits in the same institutional baskets as Bitcoin.

When the tide comes in or goes out, the same desks often buy and sell both.

It trades a bit like Bitcoin after three espressos.

Sui is still much more of an individual project.

At around $3 billion, you’ve got thinner liquidity, lumpier buyers, token unlocks, market makers and ecosystem-specific news all pushing and pulling on the price.

However, when you pair SUI with SOL, you can see it outperforms on price and has broken out against Solana.

I have said many times on record that Solana is probably the best risk-adjusted asset, established enough to add with size, but SUI's price performance will probabilistically outperform it.

Final Thoughts.

An old business partner once said to me that most people have great ideas, are creative, and even have the money to splash into a business, but most don’t have the kahunas to see it through when things get tough.

I see that behaviour in Crypto investors often.

I get it. In any normal world, when an asset is down so bad you think it’s dead and buried, pushing up daisies, but it’s not. It's Uncle Tim Draper’s “I” s curve playing out as normal. Developers are working their tits off.

By the way, so am I. If you’re a free member, please consider a paid subscription.

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This trade is beyond simple.

It’s a bet on Bitcoin, provided SUI maintains its correlation with Bitcoin and the developer activity continues at the current rate of change in an uptrend I expect this asset to do well. The low float should create supply friction, which will amplify upside moves.

But the double-edged sword is that you have to grin and bear the stomach-churning drawdowns.

I don’t know whether Sui becomes the next Solana. Nobody does. What I do know is that I’ve spent eight years watching this market, and I’ve seen Ethereum go through this process. I’ve watched Solana copy its older brother's PTSD when Sam Bankman-Fried nuked the market.

The volatility is just a function of how these assets work. The developer activity is undeniable.

What would really be icing on the cake is a significant use case for SUI, on top of the already obvious developer activity, price performance in an uptrend, and correlation with Bitcoin.

It happened with my Solana bet.

It’s why SUI is giving me déjà vu.

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This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, tax, or legal advice. You should consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.

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We spoke about the current state of the market, some of the innovation happening in the NFT space, and the somewhat controversial Hunter Biden memecoin launch, which is already down astronomically.

These lives continue to grow, which tells me there’s still a huge appetite for understanding what’s happening beneath the market's surface. You joining us each week, or simply sharing this article with a friend or family member, helps us grow.

If you want access to the community, our daily chat and monthly private group calls, consider becoming a Founding Member.

Make this the last cycle you have to guess or go it alone.

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Famous investor Peter Lynch once said:

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

I’ve been inundated with messages.

Mostly from Nostradamus-style price predictors creating a stench in my comments section, evangelising about an October bottom and telling people to “Ignore this fakeout.”

I have to laugh at the psychology of hanging your entire strategy on a four-year cycle framework and convincing yourself the market will bottom on “October 5th”, exactly 365 days after the previous cycle high.

The issue is that the market may have structurally changed while everyone is still religiously following a made-up playbook.

Scott Bessent has agreed to double buybacks on U.S. debt, which essentially acts like a soft stimulus play because the U.S. is printing more money to buy back old money, a bit like that elephant meme of it fornicating itself with it’s trunk.

Even if you’re right, why take the risk? It’s the part people are completely missing.

If we enter an uptrend from here and you’re sat on the sidelines waiting for your perfectly timed October bottom, the bigger risk isn’t being in an asset that could drop another 20–30%.

It’s missing the move altogether.

That’s why I believe now is the time to start DCAing into the battle-hardened assets. Not going all in. Not trying to call the bottom. Just systematically scaling in weekly.

Many of you reading this messaged me in 2024 when I first wrote about SUI. You watched it go four or five multiples, and some late entrants eventually chased it, buying the peako top.

Well, this is the time you wished you had back then.

The beauty of crypto is that volatility gives you another opportunity to catch up.

These downtrends give you the chance to slowly scale into the strongest assets you believe will perform this cycle. They also give you an amazing opportunity to bring down your watermark.

But not if you’re carrying PTSD.

Buckle up and let’s get into it.

Bitcoin.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know Bitcoin is still the granddaddy pulling the strings across the entire crypto market with a dominance of 59.6%.

Like it or not, the price performance of almost every asset we lean into can largely be explained by what Bitcoin is doing. Bitcoin sneezes, alts catch pneumonia.

Using daily returns from 31 August 2025 to 31 August 2026, this is the correlation of these assets against Bitcoin:

You don't really own four completely independent trades.

Over the past year, Ethereum and Solana have both shown roughly 86–90% correlation with Bitcoin, and XRP has been around 86%.

Even the much younger SUI has historically shown a strong positive relationship with Bitcoin.

Recently, plenty of muck has been slung at our grandpa token.

We had the October 10th crash, with a liquidation event 10x larger than anything crypto had experienced. Bitcoin got smoked, but as always, the alts took the real beating. The dog wags the tail in crypto, and when Bitcoin gets dragged down, everything further out on the risk curve gets nuked.

Then you had the Jane Street manipulation narrative, Bitcoin whales selling into the market, and the Iran conflict beginning in February, sending oil prices higher and putting even more downward pressure on an asset incredibly sensitive to financial conditions.

Basically, Bitcoin has spent months getting fish slapped from every direction. But here’s where things potentially get interesting.

The backdrop appears to be changing.

Scott Bessent’s double buybacks of U.S. debt have effectively acted as a soft stimulus, improving liquidity conditions at exactly the point everyone seems convinced we should be preparing for another leg lower.

The mechanism is pretty simple.

If the Treasury starts buying long-term bonds, it helps push yields down. Lower yields make scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold more attractive, while potentially adding liquidity to the system.

Cheaper money and more liquidity generally help risk assets.

That’s why Bitcoin reacted so strongly to the news, moving from the mid-$60ks towards $80k.

And you can start to see that shift showing up in the chart below.

Ethereum.

Ethereum, the open-source app store of the internet, has been a bit of a sleeping giant this cycle.

In fact, I saw a hilarious chart the other day showing that if you’d bought ETH in 2021, you could have held it for five years, survived an entire crypto cycle, aged considerably in the process and still be down around 10%.

Yuck.

The caption read: “Gay dating app Grindr outperformed ETH during that time.” Lol.

The internet remains undefeated.

Part of the problem is that Ethereum has almost become a victim of its own success. Layer 2s were built to help scale the network, but in doing so they’ve cannibalised a chunk of the activity that previously happened directly on the main chain.

However, they have 31,869 developers, and 9,300 of them are active monthly, building out applications on this network, which is the largest developer base of any blockchain network.

We’re starting to see improved network activity again, particularly across the NFT ecosystem, where $600 million was added to the market cap of NFTs, which are predominantly Ethereum NFTs, but this also gives the chain an enormous cultural and historical moat.

Personally, I don’t hold much ETH directly.

My ETH exposure comes largely through NFTs because I think they give me a much more interesting leveraged bet on Ethereum while still giving me exposure to ETH itself.

If Ethereum runs, I get the ETH multiplier on the art assets. But I also own something with its own independent supply-and-demand dynamics sitting on top of it.

Author’s note: In my free Crypto Wealth Playbook, I share what I believe are the best risk-adjusted Crypto and NFT assets to get into this cycle: CLICK HERE

I’m much more comfortable owning fixed-supply assets on Ethereum.

Historically significant art, culturally significant art and genuine IP plays, where I can actually observe the scarcity, attention and demand.

For me, that’s a far more interesting way to play Ethereum.

Solana

Solana, in my opinion, is probably the best “risk-adjusted” asset for this cycle.

And the reason is pretty simple. It’s already been through hell and come out the other side. So you have a perfect storm: it's small enough and established enough to be in a Goldilocks zone.

FTX absolutely frazzled SOL when SBF pulled the aux cord out of his trading Ponzi empire while having around a 15% stake in Solana. My SOL went from around $257 all the way down to $8, which was stomach-churning but also, in hindsight, offered a generational entry point. At the time, plenty of people declared it dead, buried and ready to push up daisies in the crypto graveyard.

Then it came roaring back like Busta f*cking Douglas, which I can tell you felt majestic.

The same appears to be happening with SUI, more on that in a second.

In crypto, surviving a cycle is a significant feature. Networks with a Lindy effect are the observable value you want to see at the tippy top of the totem pole. We now know Solana can take an absolute steel-cap to the shin bone, lose one of its biggest backers, survive a brutal bear market and still come back swinging.

But the price is only half the story.

Look underneath the hood, and there’s a ridiculous amount of activity happening across the network. And despite what your timeline might have you believe, it isn’t just 14-year-olds trading FartCoin.

The numbers are ridiculous.

In 2026, Solana still has around 2,300 monthly active developers, including nearly 700 full-time developers (17k in total). The network is currently doing around 100 million transactions a day, with more than 2 million daily active addresses.

Then you get to the application layer, which is where it gets really interesting.

Applications built on Solana are currently generating around $12 million in fees and $5.5 million in revenue every day, while its decentralised exchanges do more than $2 billion in daily trading volume.

It’s observable value on top of observable value.

Developers build applications. Applications attract users. Users create transactions, fees and revenue. And by owning SOL, you’re owning the network rail that all of that activity is happening on.

That’s why I love Ethereum and why I lean heavily into SUI.

Instead of trying to pick which individual application, token, or company becomes the winner, you can own the network rail they’re all being built on. It becomes a bit of a pick-and-shovel play.

Famous macro investor Raoul Pal recently shared his view.

Raoul Pal:

“I just think the layer one bet is just easier, right? It’s the infrastructure layer. There’s still excess capacity. We’ve got plenty of use cases coming in front of us. It’s just easier to capture. It might make you less money than a product market fit occurring in a application layer. But they’re much harder to figure out. When the base layer is pretty straightforward.”

I think Solana sits in a perfect middle ground.

It’s big enough and battle-tested enough that we know it can survive a full cycle, but it’s still small enough that it doesn’t require the ocean of capital Bitcoin needs to move the needle.

For me, that combination of survival, network activity, application-layer growth and market-cap size makes Solana a really strong asset this cycle.

(I own a minimal amount of SOL).

SUI

Sui is down 70%. In almost any other market, you’d assume something is fundamentally broken.

In crypto, especially with a first-cycle asset, that’s the price you pay for sitting further out on the risk curve.

Bitcoin has had a tariff pounding.

Throw in the Iran conflict, tightening financial conditions, and Bitcoin bleeding, and naturally a higher-beta, first-cycle asset like SUI, correlated with it, is going to bleed far more than the battle-hardened majors.

I lived this watching my Solana fall like a broken elevator.

But before the market got punched in the face, Sui was showing me exactly what I wanted to see. It was outperforming on price, outperforming Solana at points, and even breaking out against it.

And ultimately, that’s what we’re here for: price performance.

But underneath the hood, the growth is interesting too.

Sui has been the fastest-growing L1 ecosystem over the last two years, with around 1,400 active monthly developers. For context, Bitcoin has around 2,500.

More importantly, that growth has happened while the broader developer trend has been moving in the opposite direction. Total crypto developers are down around 20% over the last year, while the major EVM L1S have seen negative developer growth.

More people building means more applications, more activity and potentially more value compounding across the network.

And because Sui has an application layer, I don’t need to pick every individual winner built on top of it. Like Ethereum and Solana, I can own the network rail and capture ecosystem growth.

The value becomes observable.

Then you have the team. Sui was built by former Meta engineers, with serious people around the ecosystem, including Raoul Pal on the advisory board.

The tokenomics are where you need to keep your eyes open.

Relatively low circulating supply (41%) against a much larger fully diluted valuation cuts both ways. Low float can amplify price performance when demand comes flooding in, but that future supply eventually has to enter circulation.

You can’t conveniently ignore the unlocks because you love the asset.

That’s why Sui remains my core bet for this cycle, but it isn’t a marriage.

If I were building a barbell for anyone relatively new in the space, I’d be comfortable with around a 50% allocation to Sui alongside a mix of battle-hardened blue chips. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Doge and XRP. But as many here know, I’m pot-committed to SUI, with much smaller allocations in the other assets. That may change as we get deeper into the cycle.

Because at some point, Sui has to become a sell.

Jamie Coutts, widely regarded as one of the world’s top business cycle experts, has said he’s reallocated a significant portion of his portfolio from broad altcoin baskets into selective Layer 1s like ETH, SOL, SUI, and BNB.

He recently described these Layer 1 blockchains as the straightforward option in crypto.

“The concentration of activity is very clear in terms of the chains that are going to win. Now there's always going to be newcomers and there's always going to be potential to make outsized returns in chains that exist today or chains that exist in the future. But if you think about it just from a very simple asset allocation mentality, if you allocate to where the activity is and maybe size it slightly differently if you're looking for a little bit more beta in the market, that's kind of all you need to really think about.”

SUI is in its first cycle with future supply to contend with, and it will naturally experience far more violent drawdowns when the market turns against it.

But that’s the deal.

You don’t get the potential for ridiculous upside without accepting ridiculous volatility on the way there. Somewhat interestingly, it’s showing a naughty little wedge pattern on the chart below, which lends itself to breaking out to the upside.

Final Thoughts

Nobody knows exactly where the bottom is.

Not me. Not you. Not the bloke on X with 14 charts, three cycle overlays and October 5th circled in red.

And certainly not the smartest traders or fund managers in the world.

That’s really the entire point of this piece.

If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for October 5th because a four-year cycle framework tells you that’s when the bottom has to arrive, you’re trying to perfectly time something that doesn’t need to be perfectly timed.

Especially with an increasingly bullish backdrop.

The ISM is improving, with a recent score of 54.6, which signals that we are entering a bull phase in business conditions. Bitcoin has consolidated since February. We’ve got the U.S. midterms coming in November, increasingly dovish language around AI improving productivity, and Scott Bessent’s double buybacks on U.S. debt effectively acting as a steroid injection in the arse cheek of asset prices.

None of that guarantees your token will go up.

But it does tell me that the conditions for risk assets are becoming increasingly favourable at exactly the moment everyone seems terrified to own them.

Could Bitcoin drop another 20% from here? Of course. Could Sui get punched another 30% in the face? Absolutely.

That’s precisely why I like the DCA strategy.

You don’t need to call the bottom. You don’t need to go all in. And you certainly don’t need an unsolicited clairvoyant Crypto bro to give you permission to wait to buy on October 5th.

You can simply start adding weekly to the assets you believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted opportunity and let time do the heavy lifting. Because many of you have already lived through the opposite side of this trade.

In 2024, you watched assets like Sui go bananas and then flooded my inbox telling me you’d missed the boat. Well, this is what the other side of that opportunity feels like.

And unsurprisingly, it feels bloody horrible.

But that’s the paradox of investing.

The prices you desperately wanted when everything was going up are often the exact same prices you’re terrified to buy when everything is going down.

That’s why becoming numb to the volatility is such a gift. Crypto gives you these ridiculous drawdowns, but you can’t bite the same hand that feeds you because it’s an opportunity to catch up.

For me, a steady weekly DCA into battle-hardened assets, with some measured exposure to the higher-beta opportunities I believe can outperform, is the sweet spot.

Will I catch the exact bottom? Probably not.

But I don’t need to.

It’s why I’m DCAing into Crypto now, where I can see network activity is growing.

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Burge did a deep dive into physical collectibles, while Simon unpacked some of the newer mints hitting the timeline. We also got into Robinhood and OpenSea integrating Solana NFTs. A significant move for the space and another sign of where attention could be heading.

We even shared a hilarious video of an MSTR investor reacting to Saylor buying even more Bitcoin using preferred stock while the stock was up 50%. The internet remains undefeated 😂

Today’s live was an absolute banger.

I appreciate every one of you who tunes in. You can catch us live every Wednesday at 8:30am ET.

And if you want to go one step further, inside the Founding community we discuss trade ideas every day, host monthly group calls and, somewhere along the way, have built some lifelong friendships.

Most importantly, you don’t have to navigate another crypto cycle alone.

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Today’s live was an absolute banger.

Bitcoin and crypto saw their strongest rally in two years, while NFTs added another $600 million to their market cap in under a week.

We had a laugh with this one, shared some of the best projects we’re watching, and broke down what we expect to see next.

I also shared some insights from my conversation last night with Alex Sayer, founder of CryptoSkulls. Very insightful, particularly around where the project is heading.

Many of you have already grabbed the Crypto Wealth Playbook. If you’re ready for the next step, come and join the community.

We discuss trade ideas every day, host monthly group calls, build lifelong friendships and, most importantly, make sure you don’t have to navigate this cycle alone.

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I’ve tried to write this piece three times this week.

The problem is, every time I come back to it, Bitcoin seems to have cracked open another can of Red Bull and formed another cup-and-handle pattern.

That, in itself, says something.

Over the last few months, so many people have messaged me saying, “The bottom will be October.” The thesis was built around the now-famous four-year cycle chart, suggesting Bitcoin’s low would come exactly 365 days after the previous cycle’s high.

No way, José.

It’s a truism in Crypto that if everyone thinks one thing, you probably want to start looking the other way. Or, as Chris Burniske would say: “If there’s a feeling of euphoria in either direction, you want to take the opposing view on that bet.”

He foresaw the October 10th, 2025 crash because he could see people loading up on leverage and playing the four-year cycle framework. Meanwhile, we were all fixated, like dopamine-fuelled crack addicts, on the M2 money supply chart that Bitcoin was literally mirroring.

That included me, might I add.

In my eight years in this space, I’ve come to one pretty simple realisation: the bigger risk isn’t buying an asset that could fall another 20%, 30%, or even 60%. The bigger risk is sitting on the sidelines while the highest-quality assets can outperform in such a ridiculously short space of time.

Which is exactly what we’re seeing now.

One framework I’ve leaned on heavily, and shared with this community for a long time, is the ISM.

The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI is one of the simplest ways to understand the health of the economy. Every month, it surveys businesses across the United States to see whether conditions are improving or deteriorating. A reading above 50 means the economy is expanding, while below 50 means it’s contracting.

Today, that reading sits at 55.6.

That’s a strong number because it signals improving business conditions, which generally lead to easing financial conditions, stronger corporate confidence, and, ultimately, a greater appetite for risk assets.

While much of Crypto Twitter debated exact dates and tried to predict the perfect bottom, the backdrop underneath the market was quietly getting stronger.

I love the ISM chart below because, quite frankly, it’s been ludicrously accurate.

But its real value is that it gives you a mental framework for where we are in the cycle and, more importantly, puts a psychological shield between you and the market’s day-to-day madness.

And in crypto, that is gold dust.

Don’t underestimate the scale of the opportunity

One of the aha-apple-bouncing-off-my-noggin moments on my journey in this wild space was realising that we spend far too much time obsessing over the technology and not enough time looking at the people using it.

Think about the telephone.

We can all agree it was a world-changing piece of technology. But if I owned the only telephone on Earth, it would be completely useless. Users drive the technology’s additional utility, not the other way around.

The same applies to social media. Facebook didn’t become valuable because someone wrote elegant code. It became valuable because billions of people joined the network.

That, in a nutshell, is Metcalfe’s Law.

In simple terms, a network becomes more valuable as more people use it because every new participant creates more possible connections. Crypto, the ultimate money network, works in much the same way. Users become the network’s biggest proponents and, somewhat tribally, start fighting off competing ideas.

It’s why XRP army and Bitcoin Maxi’s exist.

As each cycle passes and our lives become increasingly digitised, that flywheel compounds. Only in the best networks, of course.

Famous macro investor Raoul Pal has often spoken about Metcalfe’s Law as one of the few observable frameworks for valuing crypto networks. More recently, he’s been talking about something potentially much bigger: Reed’s Law.

And this is where I think things get really interesting.

Most people’s valuation frameworks for Crypto are still based on humans adopting the technology. What they aren’t accounting for is the potential exponential effect of each of those humans eventually using 10, 20 or even 100 AI agents that could converge with blockchain technology and transact with each other.

Suddenly, we’re not just talking about billions of humans using these networks. We’re potentially talking about tens or hundreds of billions of human-directed AI agents interacting, transacting and forming their own networks on top of them.

Whether that plays out exactly as imagined isn’t really the point.

The point is that we’re trying to value something potentially exponential using linear thinking.

And that could mean we’re missing the forest for the trees.

Raoul Pal:

“Elon’s talking about the robot being the largest single product ever sold. Okay, there’s a billion robots. Okay. That makes a difference.

But when you’re talking about 100 million, 500 million agents, we have no comprehension what that means. So the economic system just doesn’t function. It’s moving so fast now.

Almost all technological adoption in all of history has been Metcalfe’s Law. So they kind of grow in that log channel. Look at Google’s chart from day one, look at Facebook, look at the NASDAQ, look at all of them. They’re all the same chart. And that’s Metcalfe’s Law.

Now, the issue is AI is the first ever recorded example of Reed’s Law. So Reed’s was theoretical. It’s not observed in biology. We don’t see it in things like viruses. It doesn’t exist.

Now it exists.

And so what we’re seeing is Reed’s Law is Metcalfe’s Law squared. So it’s the exponential of the log channel. The exponential of the exponential.

So, to put it in terms people understand, ARK put out a piece of research showing the estimated annual output of words of all of humanity each year, from the Gutenberg press in 1500 to today.

AI, in three years, has now exceeded per year all of the output of all humans on Earth in terms of words.

By 2028, so this is now, call it six years, five years after AI really came out, it will produce more words than all of humanity has ever produced in sum total.”

My highest conviction bet this cycle

There’s an old saying that you earn your stripes in the trenches, not when everything is going your way. SUI has been exactly that kind of trade.

I know many of you followed me into SUI. Some of you have been here even longer, from the Solana article I wrote when it was around $8, while others joined after I wrote about the Bitcoin lows. I never take your trust (or your attention) for granted.

The reason I’ve leaned so heavily into Layer 1s is simple: I’d rather own the infrastructure than try to guess which individual application wins.

Buying a Layer 1 is essentially owning the protocol that hundreds, or eventually thousands, of businesses can build on top of. You’re backing the rails rather than trying to pick every train, and on a risk-adjusted basis, that has always made more sense to me.

SUI has been that bet.

It generally moves in the same direction as Bitcoin, but because it’s newer, smaller and less liquid, those moves can be far more amplified. That cuts both ways, which anyone who's held it over the last year knows all too well.

At one point, SUI fell 70%+. That’s stomach-churning, but nobody gets to watch you sit through a drawdown like that and then tell you the upside was luck.

If you continued to dollar-cost average through that downtrend, you’re now beginning to feel the compounding benefits of patience. And having a full-sized set of kahunas.

If you bought near the highs, that’s okay too. Almost everyone who’s been around long enough has top-blasted a token. I wanted to crawl into a ball when I bought Ethereum at $150 and watched it retrace to $80.

We all know how that played out.

The lesson is that sometimes it just takes time for these things to play out. That’s also what the chart below illustrates beautifully.

SUI in blue broadly mirrors Bitcoin in orange, but the swings are much more violent. When Bitcoin falls, SUI can bleed harder. When Bitcoin moves higher, that same relationship can create amplified moves in the opposite direction.

That volatility is the price of admission.

The potential outperformance is why we’re willing to pay it.

Art on the Blockchain

Art has always lived on the medium of its time.

On cave walls, on the sides of buildings, on pavements, on canvases and even on pieces of cardboard like Pokémon cards, being the contemporary art of our generation.

Art now lives on the blockchain.

Our generation grew up online. We’ve built friendships, businesses, and entire careers online. So it makes perfect sense that our generation’s contemporary art also exists online.

NFT art captures internet culture. The difference is that, for the first time, digital art has built-in scarcity, built-in supply friction, verifiable ownership and permanent provenance. Those are the exact characteristics that have made physical art valuable for centuries.

Art sits upstream of wealth, and there’s now an extraordinary amount of wealth inside crypto.

One thing many people overlook is the relationship between NFTs and Ethereum. NFTs are a huge function of the Ethereum ecosystem. When ETH appreciates, ETH holders' purchasing power increases, creating what often feels like a multiplier effect for culturally significant NFT collections.

What is extraordinary is that Art Price researched 47,000 contemporary registered artists and found that 85% of the value accrues to just 100 of them, which makes the $1.5 billion in value roughly the same as the entire NFT market cap today.

So, if you pick the right artists, and without me overreaching here, it could genuinely change your fucking life.

This is why I continue to believe the greatest opportunity isn’t chasing endless meme coins or micro-cap tokens with unlimited competition and endless supply. Too many tokens are competing for attention, and liquidity is spread far thinner than it was five years ago.

That’s why I still believe in the barbell approach: own battle-hardened blue-chip assets on one side and culturally significant digital art on the other.

The edges are where the opportunity lives.

Final Thoughts

There’s an old saying that everyone looks like a genius in a bull market, but the actual genius is still having some irons in the fire when it arrives.

I’ve had countless messages asking me where prices go from here.

The truth is, I don’t know. Nobody does. And after three cycles in Crypto, I’ve realised that trying to predict every twist and turn is usually where people tie themselves in knots.

What I am confident in is the framework.

Using indicators like the ISM to understand when financial conditions are improving. Building positions gradually. Scaling out gradually. Owning the right assets. And, above everything else, managing your emotions when the market inevitably tries to slap the conviction out of you, like when Mom came at you with a slipper.

The biggest lesson this cycle is to stop thinking you’re Nostradamus and trying to predict the future. Note to self. Avoid getting pot committed to speculative bets while the obvious trend is staring you squarely in the face.

Bitcoin. Ethereum. Solana. XRP. DOGE. SUI.

Then, for those willing to venture further out on the risk curve, culturally significant digital art.

Where I think people are missing the forest for the trees is that this isn’t the same Crypto market we were investing in 5 years ago. Back then, governments were talking about banning it. The SEC was suing large parts of the industry, liquidity was tighter and institutional participation barely existed.

Today, the playing field couldn’t look more different.

Crypto has become a social trend. People proudly stick “Investor” in their bios, and almost everyone I speak to owns some combination of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP or a shit coin that tasted like regret.

The beauty of this cycle is you get to be the second mouse that gets the cheese.

You can put meaningful size into assets unlike those tiddly little bits people were parking their cash into in 2017. It’s because these right assets have already survived bear markets, regulatory attacks, hacks, crashes and 47,000 declarations that Crypto is dead, yet still have an enormous runway ahead of them.

It’s the moat Uncle Warren Buffett has talked about for decades, just applied to Crypto. The strongest networks become increasingly difficult to displace because the users, liquidity, developers, applications and attention start compounding around them.

You don’t need to find the next obscure token hiding under a rock and pray it does 100x. Sure, have a punt, but put that firmly in the “fun” category, somewhere under dopamine shot in the arm.

Sometimes the biggest opportunity is the one sitting right under your nose. Capture the obvious trend. Have a framework. Give the best assets enough time to do the heavy lifting.

Now the real opportunity in Crypto begins.

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We covered Burge’s dating strategy, which was slightly unconventional to say the least, but it’s hard to argue with the results. 😂

Simon shared what he’s been building on the AI side, and then we picked apart everything happening across crypto and NFTs.

A heck of a show.

Many of you have already grabbed the Crypto Wealth Playbook. If you’re ready for the next step, come and join the community. We discuss trade ideas every day, host monthly group calls, build lifelong friendships, and most importantly, make sure you don’t have to navigate this cycle alone.

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Simon had just got back from London with his family, while Burge and I were sat in 39-degree heat with the fan working overtime just to keep us alive. 😂

We covered everything from the macro picture and where we think Bitcoin could finally find its bottom, to the latest NFT mints, and something I find really interesting... old founders making their way back into the space. Some are coming back after huge success, others after failed projects, but many are quietly building again.

It’s also a little surreal to say we’re already on Episode 46.

If you’ve been tuning in from day one, thank you. Genuinely. Your support means the world, and it’s the reason we keep showing up every week.

If you want to take the next step, join the Carrot Lane community where we share ideas every day, or grab my free Crypto Wealth Playbook packed with the highest-conviction digital assets I’m researching this cycle.

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Burge, Simon and I covered the current crypto market, the Coldcard hack, the scam call I received yesterday (which was sobering, to say the least), and everything happening across crypto, NFTs and the macro landscape.

If you’ve been reading my posts or tuning into these livestreams for a while but haven’t joined the Carrot Lane Founders Group yet, this is probably your sign.

When I look back over the last eight years, almost every expensive mistake I made came from going it alone, guessing, or having nobody around me to challenge my thinking.

That’s exactly why I built this community.

It’s a group of people who share ideas every day, challenge each other’s thinking, act as a sounding board when emotions are running high, get direct access to founders through private calls, and genuinely want to see each other win.

The returns matter.

But the relationships, accountability, and clarity you build along the way are what stop you making the mistakes that cost the most.

If you want to make this cycle the last time you guess or go it alone, click “Join Community” below.

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Burge, Simon and I covered the current crypto market, why the Clarity Act now looks further away than many expected, NFTs, PNKSTR, and Fake World Assets. The ecosystem Adam Levik has built, which has already generated almost $20 million in trading volume.

If you’ve been reading my posts or tuning into these livestreams for a while but haven’t joined the Carrot Lane Founders Group yet, this is probably your sign.

When I look back over the last eight years, almost every expensive mistake I made came from going it alone, guessing, or having nobody around me to challenge my thinking.

That’s exactly why I built this community.

It’s a group of people who share trade ideas every day, act as a sounding board when emotions are running high, get direct access to founders through private calls, and genuinely want to see each other win. The returns matter, but so do the relationships you build along the way.

If you want to make this cycle the last time you guess or go it alone, click “Join Community” below.

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Burge, Simon and I spoke about the silent undercurrent of collectables making their way into NFTs, which is a clear sign the market is shifting.

We also covered the Clarity Act, what it could mean for crypto, and our expectations for both Crypto and NFTs over the rest of the year.

Many of you are regular listeners and readers here but haven’t yet made the leap into the Carrot Lane Founders Group. Looking back, most of the worst and most impulsive mistakes I’ve made came from going it alone and guessing.

I encourage all of you to find a community that acts like a hive mind for crypto, where you can share trade ideas in a daily chat, use experienced members as a sounding board, and build genuine connections with people who are on the same journey.

If that sounds like something you’d benefit from, click “Join Community” below.

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We explored both sides of the NFT market: the success stories, but also the projects that have gone silent on their holders.

Simon didn’t hold back.

Many of you have been watching the show for a while now, but you’re still going through this cycle alone and largely guessing. If you want to be part of a high-signal community that cuts through the noise, consider joining the Carrot Lane Inner Circle, aptly named the Founding Members Group.

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Crypto and NFTs are in a really interesting spot, especially with the situation in Iran bubbling over.

We also got into the World Cup, Kevin Warsh, Michael Saylor selling Bitcoin, and the viral Gary Stevenson video calling for higher taxes on the rich.

Plenty to unpack in this one.

If you want to be closer to the community, the Carrot Lane Founding group is where it happens. That’s where the deeper conversations are, and actual friendships are being formed.

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Crypto and NFTs are in a really interesting spot right now.

Collectables continue to pump, helping support NFT prices, while crypto is still largely drifting lower and following the typical four-year cycle.

We also dig into the macro tailwinds that could change all of that, Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Chair, and why it could be one of the biggest catalysts for asset prices over the next 12 months.

If you want to be closer to the community, the Carrot Lane Founding group is where it happens. That’s where the deeper conversations are, and actual friendships are being formed.

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We had a few technical issues, but the reason why is genuinely hilarious, so stick around to find out what happened.

We also got into Bitcoin dropping below $60,000, NFT art continuing to trade sideways, and why forward-looking indicators look much more positive than the headlines suggest.

If you want to be closer to the community, the Carrot Lane Founding group is where it happens. That’s where the deeper conversations are, and actual friendships are being formed.

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If you want to be closer to the community, the Carrot Lane Founding group is where it happens. That’s where the deeper conversations are, and actual friendships are being formed.

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