Garyvee’s Recent Comments on Where Crypto Prices Could Go Are Subtly Profound.

It would help if you had insight into how business owners with many employees think about layoffs.

Photo By Rick Turoczy on Flikr

Cryptocurrency markets are all over the place at the moment.

There’s uncertainty everywhere.

As a result, I’ve been writing a disproportionate amount of blogs on people with diverse backgrounds and skill sets.

I’ve written about day traders, long-term investors, entrepreneurs and people in the traditional finance world on where they believe cryptocurrency prices could go in the near term.

Everyone’s divided.

I’ve said this in one of my blogs before, but I read your comments, and it’s clear even my readers are divided.

I reverse-engineer what people write in the comments section and the undertone of what you’re asking me and then deliver content accordingly.

It helps me deliver more relevant blogs, so I appreciate it when you leave thoughtful, positive or negative replies.

Most of what I’m hearing is people want to know if we’ve hit bottom, and if we haven’t hit bottom in the market, when will that be, and if it’s not the end of the pain, how much worse can it get for crypto?

If you feel like I’ve leapt into your brain, you’ve come to the right place because Garyee’s recent comments on his newly launched podcast are as logical and subtly profound as I’ve heard when it comes to his take on the market.

No 30-day candlestick charts.

No trying to climb into Jerome Powell’s brain.

And no hopium (addiction to false hopes)

Gary Vaynerchuk is an insanely good businessman without the corporate edge. He’s understated and very informal when you see him in public appearances.

But if you’ve ever heard him speak, he’s got this way of knowing what the masses are thinking and then reverse-engineering his content accordingly.

I stole the reverse engineering idea from him.

Garyvee, as he’s known, specialises in investing in start-ups which are as risky as it gets as a Venture Capitalist. You’ve got to have a pretty remarkable level of intuition to know something will be a success before it happens.

He rarely misses.

His first three investments were Facebook, Twitter and Tumblr (source) before their shares were publicly available and at the start-up phase of each company.

The social media cat is out of the bag now, but I remember people being sceptical about how those companies would earn money and that they were for kids.

Garyvee’s record is obnoxious, and my back-of-the-cigarette packet calculations suggest he’s worth at least a Billion dollars, even though the top hit on Google says $200 million.

What’s $800 million between friends?

March and April 2023 Are Going To Be a Big Deal.

The most significant economic event in the next few months will be the FED meeting on March 21–22nd

It’s a big deal because they’ll be discussing and voting on whether or not to increase interest rates. Interest rates directly impact the price of Cryptocurrency and the entire economy.

Ultimately, fewer people will borrow money for speculative spending when rates are increased and send crypto investors running for the hills because the digital asset community hears that liquidity is drying up.

It’s a necessary short-term evil because the impacts of inflation are far worse than Crypto prices crashing.

Garyvee, when asked where he thought the economy was going, had an interesting take.

Garyvee-Source

“March and April are going to be fascinating.

What I call smart money and not me, by the way, I’m not an economist, but I mean smart money, and I speak to a lot of these people.

I’m fascinated by how divided they are, but almost everyone agrees that everything is cloudy.

I’ve had a lot of high-level conversations with a lot of people I respect, and it just seems like there’s a little bit of clarity that my senses tell me in the next 8–10 weeks, the smart people are both going to decide which side is right because they are like half and half right now.”

People who follow Garyvee tend to live off his every word, and he’s aware of that, which is why you often hear him tip-toe around subjects, but he does drop things in subtly.

Garyvee-Source

“This is my prediction of what I think will happen, and this is me guessing out of the assh*le, but I have a weird feeling that where this is going (US economy), we’ll look back at Feb and march and say, Oh, I could feel it happening (crash/recession), and people, even with significant tech layoffs, are more confident.”

There are times I listen to Garyvee and hear a bunch of riddles, but what he’s saying if you listen to the details is that people are hearing about the tech layoffs in the news. Still, there are far more companies yet to do the same, which will take some time to impact the economy.

He differentiates whether we’ll have a soft landing or an all-mighty crash.

Garyvee-Source

“By march, we’ll have more clarity because this could be a shit year, and we’re going to be down 20%, or things will get better back half of the year.”

So far, he’s sat on the fence, and this is a whole big, nothing burger. But here’s what he said that caught my attention.

Garyvee-Source

Will Ethereum surge?:

“F*ck Eth, that’s such a speculative market, and I’m talking housing and the stock market.

Businesses will be hiring or not hiring.

Look at the big tech companies, and I would say as an owner of a big company, I’ve had 20 different owners with 500 plus employees reach out to me and say, “are you doing layoffs”.

They’re thinking about it, and it’s in the air.”

Unemployment Rises Like a Rocket and Falls Like a Feather.

According to economist Neil Mcgrath, the effects of unemployment and where it happens in the economy’s downturn may be well after a recession. (Source)

He says when a recession starts, companies look for ways to manage slowing demand for the goods and services they sell, and many may resort to laying off workers to cut costs.

Those laid-off workers spend less, which weakens demand even further. Companies hire less, making it more difficult for newly unemployed workers to find their next job.

They stay unemployed longer, which can worsen the downturn.

Final Thoughts.

The way I see it, the unemployment rocket has yet to take off.

The undertone of what Garyvee is saying is that people he knows, with many employees, are discussing laying off their workers, which, if it happens, will crash the economy.

All you have to decide is how likely it is to happen.

I think it’s incredibly likely.

Garyvee says people have had an interesting reaction to the current market, but things could get far worse.

The Fed conducts monetary policy with a target inflation rate of 2% and an unemployment target of 5%.

Unemployment is currently 3.5%, and inflation is 6.5% in America.

How people think we’re not in for more pain ahead is beyond me. And Garyvee, one entrepreneur saying that he’s had 20 different owners with 500 plus employees having the conversation about layoffs, is another nail in the coffin.

You should decide your view on where things are going, but I see signs that things will worsen because the maths doesn’t add up.