My PNKSTR Strategy Has Changed (What You Need to Know Now).

And the brutal lesson we learned from Gobstr.

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Morning folks,

Yesterday was one for the books inside our Founder’s private chat.

We set up a Town Hall, and with 20+ of us bouncing ideas around on how best to arbitrage the Goblin Town (Gobstr) project, it turned into a hive-mind masterclass.

The speed of collective learning (including mine) in that kind of setting is insane.

That’s why I keep saying, get yourself into a group, surround yourself with people on the same learning curve. It’s also a lot more fun.

Now, as wild as yesterday was, it was also a bit of a let-down price-wise.

Remember, we’d taken a week off for contract improvements while PNKSTR was ripping higher. That pent-up demand should have blasted any new launch straight into the stratosphere, and at first it did.

But the second the project mint was complete, Gobstr tanked. Most of us (yours truly included) ended up 50% underwater.

In my case, I couldn’t even get out while I was 2x up. UniSwap and the apps that should’ve let me swap were bricked, leaving me stuck in the trade.

And here’s the bigger point: the best litmus test for how these strategy tokens will perform is how the underlying NFT project itself is doing. The token exists to arbitrage the NFT. If there’s no demand for the NFT, the token is dead in the water.

It’s a mistake everyone will make.

That’s why PNKSTR works so well, because it’s pegged to CryptoPunks, which still command significant demand and will also feed off every other token launch.

What we did learn, though, is that buying straight from the website early, as the fee decay kicks in, is the sharpest move. Fees start at 95%, I made my first 0.1 ETH purchase at 92% and then added each time fees dropped by 10% to test it.

The bulk of my tokens came in the 70%–92% range. Below 50%, as the market cap increased and more buyers entered, there was, excuse the expression, less bang for my buck. I was only getting about two-thirds of the tokens for the same spend.

Not to say that this will happen with every project, but it does suggest that an earlier entry appears to be better. The real pain point came later when it was time to sell out of the trade, and I couldn’t.

The unknown here is the relationship between PNKSTR and broader market sentiment. A major holder before the launch dumped $5M worth of PNKSTR around the same time, and that may well have rippled into Gobstr’s performance.

We also don’t know how much of this demand came from the NFT holders themselves or if it was just recycled cash from PNKSTR profit.

Meanwhile, following the monster sale, PNKSTR had dropped 40% from its highs, which I saw as a golden entry for anyone still accumulating. Funny thing is, just last week, people were DM’ing me asking if it was “too late” to buy in. Then, when the price comes back to those levels, everyone bolts for the exits.

The thesis hasn’t changed.

It’s a permissionless protocol that nobody can shut down. It’s deflationary. It’s still commanding attention. And most importantly, it’s pegged to a stable asset. Combine those three, and you have a solid foundation for price appreciation.

So the real question is: do you believe in the underlying assets? With PUNKs, I do. Last cycle, they hit a 150 ETH floor. I don’t see why that momentum dies here. With 27 Punks sitting in the treasury, at some point, the flywheel is bound to ignite and trigger wild price action. Strong likelihoods, in my view.

But it comes down to time horizon.

If your core positions are sized so you can afford to lose them, this becomes a lot more fun. For the secondary launches (which I once described as the “layer 2s” with PNKSTR being the “layer 1”), those are better suited to short-term traders. My brain isn’t wired that way. If I can’t hold an asset for more than 24 hours, it’s too short a window for me.

Don’t underestimate the power of buying dips in the mother token (PNKSTR) and holding through the cycle versus this constant in-and-out trading. That was my mistake in 2021 with NFTs, fun, yes, but not how I’ll play it this time.

Still, there are launches worth watching later this week. Xcopy and Good Vibes Club, for example, have shown strength even in this brutal market. And let there be no confusion, Xcopy is the most iconic digital artist alive.

One takeaway from this first rodeo: getting in early doesn’t always pay. I’d rather pay a small premium on the secondary for a proven token if I want exposure at all.

The other side of the trade is that many of us already own the NFTs themselves, and floors on those are climbing fast, and we’re nowhere near peak hysteria yet.

People love dumping coins because there’s no emotional connection, but they hate selling NFTs. It’s because of their expressive nature.

Take Xcopy’s “Max Pain and Frens” collection, which has 63.3% unique holders and a deflationary burn mechanic. That means the majority of holders only hold one of the NFTs, which makes it very difficult to sell out of the trade if you only have one.

Now, this Thursday (Xcopy), there’s going to be a burn on a burn, which could be the most impactful launch strategy we’ve seen yet. We’ll find out soon enough.

As always, I’ll keep updating you here while we figure it out together and maximise the opportunity.

Opportunities in this space are arriving fast: strategy token launches, upcoming NFT allowlists, and smart profit-taking plays.

If you’re serious about the next 12 months and beyond, the Founder’s group is where you need to be.

Chat tomorrow.